Who is Likely to Win the World Cup 2026?
France, Spain, England and Argentina are the leading names in the outright market for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Below is a live table of bookmaker odds — the median decimal price across major UK, European and US books, de-vigged to a fair win probability — alongside our Monte Carlo bracket model's prediction for each team.
Model projection · live bookmaker odds load automatically
| # | Team | Odds | Bookie % | Model % | vs Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Argentina |
5.6 | 18.0% | 18.0% | — |
| 2 |  France |
5.6 | 17.8% | 17.8% | — |
| 3 |  Spain |
6.5 | 15.4% | 15.4% | — |
| 4 |  Brazil |
8.7 | 11.5% | 11.5% | — |
| 5 |  England |
9.3 | 10.7% | 10.7% | — |
| 6 |  Portugal |
19 | 5.2% | 5.2% | — |
| 7 |  Netherlands |
26 | 3.8% | 3.8% | — |
| 8 |  Belgium |
32 | 3.2% | 3.2% | — |
| 9 |  Germany |
32 | 3.1% | 3.1% | — |
| 10 |  Uruguay |
51 | 2.0% | 2.0% | — |
| 11 |  Croatia |
57 | 1.7% | 1.7% | — |
| 12 |  Morocco |
69 | 1.4% | 1.4% | — |
| 13 |  Colombia |
78 | 1.3% | 1.3% | — |
| 14 |  Switzerland |
135 | 0.7% | 0.7% | — |
| 15 |  Senegal |
161 | 0.6% | 0.6% | — |
| 16 |  Mexico |
217 | 0.5% | 0.5% | — |
Bookie % is the median decimal price across bookmakers, de-vigged to a fair win probability. Model % is our Monte Carlo of the bracket. Positive vs Model means the market rates the team higher than the model. Odds are projections, not betting advice.
World Cup 2026 winner — FAQ
Who is the favourite to win the 2026 World Cup?
France and Spain are joint bookmaker favourites according to the current consensus, with England and Argentina also prominent in the market. See the live table above for the latest prices and implied probabilities.
How are World Cup winner odds calculated on this page?
We pull outright winner prices from The Odds API across UK, European and US bookmakers, take the median decimal price per team, then de-vig the field so the implied probabilities sum to 100%. Odds are updated every 6 hours.
What does the bracket model predict for the 2026 World Cup winner?
The model runs 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the full 2026 bracket — simulating all 12 groups using Elo-style team ratings, picking the eight best third-placed teams, then playing out the knockout rounds. Argentina currently top the model at 18.0% title probability.
What does 'vs Model' mean in the odds table?
The 'vs Model' column shows the difference in percentage points between the bookmaker implied probability (after de-vigging) and our bracket model's prediction. A positive number means the market prices the team higher than the model does; a negative number means the model thinks they have a better chance than the bookmakers are offering.
When is the 2026 World Cup Final?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final is at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey (New York area) on 19 July 2026.
Knockout route guides
See the full projected path to the Final — Round of 32 dates, host cities and likely opponents — for every leading contender.